Zakiah Shirafkan

The Islamic Republic regime in Iran is apprehensive about the prospect of Donald Trump winning this year’s presidential elections in the U.S. In view of the fact that Trump is leading Biden in the polls, especially in swing states, the regime predicts that if he is elected president, he is likely to resume the maximum pressure strategy against the Islamic Republic.

An Islamic Republic think tank named Think Tank for Strategic Policies of Economy and Management (SARAMAD), in collaboration with the University of Tehran’s Research Institute for the Development of New Governance Apparatus, has issued a series of strategic recommendations for the regime in case Trump becomes president. They call it “US Re-Trumpization 2024.”

Here is a summary of the recommendations:

1. Strategic Analysis: Regardless of who is in the White House, the U.S. has gained new insights from the resistance forces and will likely increase pressure on Iran post-Gaza conflict. It is imperative for Iran to conduct a comprehensive SWOT analysis of the U.S. to develop proactive rather than reactive policies. 
2. Research on U.S. Officials: Iran should thoroughly study potential key figures in the Trump administration, including their connections, to better and more effectively influence them. 
3. Influence through Intellectuals: Iran should establish a network of elite lobbyists—including thinkers and academics—to indirectly advance its interests in policies and influence U.S. public opinion when necessary. 
4. Iran Action Group: Mirroring the U.S. government’s approach with the Iran Action Group, Iran should establish a U.S. Action Group. This body would analyze Iran’s policies towards the U.S. since the inception of the revolution, enhancing strategic planning and policy effectiveness. 
5. Managing Domestic Public Opinion: It is crucial for Iranian society to understand the challenges posed by the U.S. since the start of the Islamic Revolution. Promoting the notion that Iran can effectively manage these challenges is essential. Analysts and pundits should prepare the public to handle market fluctuations and other temporary shocks that may arise from Trump’s re-election. These steps aim to fortify Iran’s strategic posture and ensure a more measured and influential response to U.S. policies.

The third item is particularly daunting, as Iranian Americans since the 2022 national uprising that ensued the murder of Mahsa Amini, has been trying diligently to mitigate the influence of the Islamic Republic’s lobby groups in the US government. Despite a Democrat administration, they have been fairly successful.

The influence network suggested by SARAMAD is reminiscent of the “Iran Experts Initiative,” which was exposed by Semafor last year. A series of email exchanges in 2014 between a group of policy analysts and think tank member and Islamic Republic officials revealed an intimate collaboration between the two in terms of advancing the regime’s position in the nuclear talks.